AGP Executive Report

Small Business Conditions: U.S. optimism dipped as labor shortages persist, while inflation rose to 3.7%, keeping pressure on costs. Local Business Impact: South Florida’s Hispanic Chamber says raids have cut sales by 40% to 45% in parts of Miami-Dade, hurting restaurants, hotels, agriculture and construction as customers and workers stay away. Funding: Seoul small businesses raised 850 million won through crowdfunding, offering an alternative source of capital. Holiday Sales: A new forecast finds 29% of shoppers plan to use AI to research gifts and compare prices, even as many seek nostalgic, screen-free products. Retailers are advised to make listings, prices, shipping deadlines and return policies easy for shoppers and AI tools to understand. Export Opportunity: Indian MSMEs could gain from new trade agreements, but officials say quality and competitiveness will be key to reaching global markets.

Small-Business Sentiment: U.S. optimism slipped to 97.9 in September, below its 52-year average, as inflation and hiring worries weigh on Main Street. In the UK, just 26% of small firms expect growth in the final quarter of 2026. Funding Access: Pakistan’s government is targeting Rs2.2 trillion in SME financing by 2028, while a new U.S. SBA–Defense Department agreement aims to improve access to capital for small firms in the defense supply chain. Sales and Cash Flow: A Seoul crowdfunding showcase raised about 850 million won for roughly 100 businesses, using preorders to test demand and reduce inventory risk. Policy Relief: Australia has delayed the tax office’s planned credit-card payment ban by seven months after small-business concerns, giving firms more time to adjust.

Small-Business Mood: U.S. optimism slipped in September to 97.9, just below its long-term average, while uncertainty climbed. Labor shortages remain the top concern: 26% of owners cite staffing, and 20% point to inflation. Rising Costs: A new DayClerk price-planning tool arrives as NFIB data show more owners expect to raise prices, adding to pressure on customers and margins. Access to Finance: Pakistan’s prime minister has ordered SME financing to double to Rs2.2 trillion by 2028, a major push to widen credit for smaller firms. AI and Security: New industry tie-ups aim to help SMEs adopt AI, but recent research warns small businesses are implementing the technology faster than they can govern it. Mastercard also says stronger cyber defences are essential as Africa’s digital economy grows.

SME Finance: Pakistan plans to double lending to small and medium-sized businesses to Rs2.2 trillion by 2028, alongside efforts to make loan guidance and sector-specific business plans more accessible. Market Access: A China-Africa youth initiative is opening routes for Nigerian entrepreneurs to gain skills, build business networks and connect with potential partners. Regulation: EU ministers face calls to ease packaging rules before holiday trading; microbusinesses shipping across borders could otherwise face representation costs of several thousand euros. Business Resilience: Cebu business leaders say repeated power cuts are disrupting work and raising concerns among local and international clients. Digital Finance: Ghana’s mobile money sector is being urged to improve fraud protection and bring more small traders into formal financial services. Growth Pressures: Small businesses are adopting AI faster than they can govern it, while hiring remains difficult as qualified applicants stay scarce.

AI and Operations: Pax8 says small businesses are building AI faster than they can establish governance, highlighting the need to pair adoption with clear oversight. Economic Outlook: A Morris County Chamber breakfast will examine the forces shaping the 2027 economy, while a separate survey found only 26% of small firms expect to grow in the final quarter of 2026; overall SME sentiment eased but the outlook remained stable. Costs and Credit: High diesel prices are squeezing restaurants, and the SBA has started its new fiscal year with tighter credit access. Rising small-group health insurance premiums are another pressure on employers. Growth and Markets: A tax cut for small enterprises is being described as a key step toward growth, while new initiatives aim to help SMEs reach global markets, including through skills and technology support in Ghana and a tourism-industry target to empower one million small firms.

Digital Payments: Visa says it is working with partners across Bahrain and the GCC to improve payment interoperability and security, and widen small businesses’ access to digital commerce. Tax and Compliance: New Zealand Labour’s Barbara Edmonds backs a higher immediate asset write-off threshold, saying small firms have called for it and simpler rules could cut compliance work. Tourism SMEs: The World Travel & Tourism Council aims to support one million tourism businesses with free research, practical guidance and a global network; its research says a 10% productivity gain could add $63 billion in tourism GDP across eight economies. Hiring and Growth: Small firms report difficulty finding qualified applicants, while a new forecast flags the weakest full-year outlook for small-business growth since 2020. Market Access: Canada is supporting Nigerian SMEs seeking global markets, while small contractors are pressing for a greater share of infrastructure work.

Infrastructure Work: Small contractors are pushing for a bigger role in the public-works boom, but bonding requirements and difficulty finding opportunities can keep them from bidding directly on major projects. Global Markets: Nigeria’s NASSI plans to connect small entrepreneurs with training and partnerships to help them build global brands. Business Continuity: South Korea’s SMEs face a growing succession crunch: many older owners have no successor, while inheritance taxes are a major barrier to passing companies on. Small-Business Tools: Gusto has enhanced its Claude connector to simplify business management for small firms. Tourism: WTTC aims to support one million tourism SMEs with free research, guidance and industry connections, citing estimates that a 10% productivity boost could add $63 billion in direct tourism GDP across eight economies. Founder Story: Snag founder Brie Read turned a search for better-fitting tights into an international business reporting £54 million in annual sales.

Small-Business Borrowing: UK firms are taking on growing personal-guarantee risks: the average guaranteed loan reached £317,000, above the average house price of £271,204, putting owners’ homes potentially on the line if their businesses fail. SME Funding: India approved a ₹10,000-crore fund for equity investment in small and medium-sized firms, while Stripe and FedEx are using shipping data to widen small-business access to financing. Business Outlook: Small-business hiring has slowed as firms struggle to find qualified applicants, and growth forecasts have fallen to their weakest point since 2020. Economic Conditions: Fitch upgraded Nigeria’s outlook to positive, citing reforms and foreign reserves of $54.9 billion—a sign of stronger buffers, though not an immediate rating upgrade. Small-Business Tech: Gusto expanded its Claude connector so owners can handle payroll, timesheets and labor-cost queries through conversational commands.

Hiring and Growth: Small-business hiring has slowed as employers struggle to find qualified applicants. Growth expectations are also weak: only 26% of small firms forecast growth in the final quarter, and a separate report marks the worst full-year outlook since 2020. Financing: The SBA has started its new fiscal year with tighter credit standards, while Stripe and FedEx are teaming up to widen small-business access to financing. Policy Support: India approved a ₹10,000-crore fund for direct investment in SMEs, aimed at helping firms scale. Malaysia’s 2027 budget also includes higher minimum wages and expanded tax relief. Resilience: Climate insurance could help protect small businesses, but many still struggle to access coverage.

Hiring: U.S. small-business hiring slowed in September, but finding qualified workers remains tough: 32% of owners had vacancies they could not fill, and 87% of those trying to hire reported few or no suitable applicants. UK Outlook: Just 26% of small firms expect growth in the final quarter of 2026, while 23% fear contraction or struggling to survive the winter. Owners cite rising diesel costs and possible tax increases; growth forecasts have stayed below 30% all year for the first time in more than a decade. Malaysia Budget: The government plans to raise the minimum wage to 2,000 ringgit a month from June and expand tax relief, alongside a proposed 2027 budget of 459.8 billion ringgit. SME Finance: Thailand is looking to revive small-business lending after a four-year decline. India, meanwhile, has approved a 10,000-crore-rupee fund for equity investment in small and medium-sized firms, aiming to help promising businesses scale.

Malaysia Budget: The 2027 package directs tax relief toward SMEs and middle-income earners, while aiming to balance support with fiscal discipline. SBA Lending: U.S. 7(a) approvals fell to 56,130 loans worth $32.4 billion in fiscal 2026, with both measures down by double digits; tighter underwriting now applies as the new year begins. AI Scams: The BBB warns that one in four surveyed small-business owners has faced an AI-driven scam, urging firms to set clear rules for AI tools and verify payment requests. SME Outlook: Sentiment eased in September, but the outlook remained stable amid economic growth. Growth Funding: India approved a ₹10,000-crore fund for direct equity investment in SMEs, aimed at helping firms scale and compete globally. Hiring: A new report points to a rebound in small-business hiring.

Tax & Payments: Australia will fund the tax office to accept credit-card payments until July 2027, delaying a change that drew small-business backlash over surcharges and rising costs. Vietnam’s finance ministry says tax reforms should prioritize small firms, while India’s GST Council plans simpler business updates and faster refunds—90% to be issued within three days of acknowledgment. Costs & Capital: The era of cheap capital may be ending as India’s central bank raises rates and signals they could stay high or rise further, adding pressure on borrowing costs. Growth & Support: DoorDash and the Greater Memphis Chamber offered small businesses hands-on training in advertising, platform tools and AI, plus $1,000 in credits. Fiserv’s index also showed small-business sales rose in September, helped by back-to-school retail.

Business Stress: U.S. Subchapter V bankruptcy elections rose 46% in the first nine months of 2026, reaching 2,442 as small firms face high borrowing costs and persistent cost pressures. Peloton Technologies and Driven Financial also announced a partnership aimed at faster small-business access to working capital. SME Funding: Singapore committed $120 million to SME innovation centres, while India approved a Rs10,000 crore SME growth fund. In the UAE, Numou partnered with a Royal Group unit on SME financing. Payments and Tax: LuLu Money Business and Mastercard plan to expand payment and financial services for UAE SMEs. India’s Nasscom welcomed GST recommendations it says could reduce tax uncertainty and working-capital costs for service exporters. Sales and Cash Flow: The Fiserv Small Business Index showed sales rose in September, helped by back-to-school retail, while OnDeck reported growing cash-flow strain among small transport firms. Side Hustles: Nearly one in four Canadians—and 46% of Gen Z respondents—say they have a side hustle, often to supplement income amid rising living costs.

SME Finance: Pakistan plans to launch a digital portal by November’s end to help small and midsize firms track bank credit and business facilities. India has approved a ₹10,000 crore fund to invest directly in smaller businesses, with the government saying it will help firms scale and reach global markets. Cash-Flow Tools: Chase is bringing Gusto-powered payroll into its business banking platform; its research found 37% of owners faced cash-flow pressure meeting payroll in the past six months. Small-Business Lending: Stripe and FedEx are teaming up to widen access to financing, using shipping data to help assess businesses. Cost Pressures: Small transport firms are reporting mounting cash-flow strain, while India’s smaller steelmakers face steep costs and limited financing as they weigh cleaner production.

SME Finance: India approved a ₹10,000-crore fund for equity investment in MSMEs. Ireland’s 2027 budget also includes a €500 million loan scheme offering eligible businesses unsecured loans of up to €500,000. Cash-Flow Strain: OnDeck says small transport firms are feeling the pinch when expenses fall due before customer payments arrive. A FedEx–Stripe Capital initiative aims to use shipping data to help expand financing access for smaller businesses. Founder Support: A new Kansas City study will map ways to better support disabled and chronically ill entrepreneurs, whose access to business resources remains fragmented. Resilience and Growth: Travel industry groups WTTC and ICC are joining forces to strengthen the voice of tourism SMEs worldwide. Schneider Electric and Greenly have also expanded a program to help SME partners measure emissions and plan reductions.

World Bank Watch: The World Bank upgraded Zambia’s 2026 growth outlook, citing reforms and better economic management, and urged governments to use practical, low-cost AI tools for schools, farmers, and small business accounting. SME Export Push: Sri Lanka’s EDB ran an SME export awareness forum in Trincomalee with seminars, product showcases, and business clinics aimed at meeting international market standards. ASEAN Green Transition: ESG Symposium 2026 in Thailand is shifting from proposals to action, using Public–Private–People partnership to drive energy transition, just transition, and climate adaptation across ASEAN. Tech Infrastructure for Growth: Digital Realty started construction on Japan’s KIX15 data center (24MW), signaling continued demand for AI-ready capacity. Local Business Reality Check: A report in Whatcom County says at least 40 businesses closed or announced closures in 2026, with owners pointing to rising costs and weaker customer demand. SMB Digital Trust: BTCC launched a refreshed Trust Center focused on long-term security, transparency, and protections for users’ assets.